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Might Iran become Trump's Iraq? Americans are wary — but shouldn't be

On 19 June 2025, columnist Dan Perry wrote in The Forward, Might Iran become Trump's Iraq? Americans are wary — but shouldn't be. He argues that a U.S. strike on Iran, then under discussion while Israel was bombing Iranian nuclear sites, should not be compared to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. His main point on troops is that he sees no serious sign the United States intends to invade Iran or to change the government with boots on the ground. Boots on the ground means American soldiers fighting inside the country, not planes overhead. An American family should care because he is answering the fear of another occupation. The Forward labels the piece opinion and says the views are the author's, not necessarily the newspaper's.

Background for a new reader. In June 2025 Israel and Iran fought a short war, often called the 12-Day War. On 22 June 2025 the United States joined it by bombing Iran's nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. A larger US-Israeli war on Iran began on 28 February 2026. This article was written during the June 2025 fighting, before or as the United States joined, when Americans were first asking whether their soldiers would be sent.

Evidence rating: MODERATE. The rating covers Dan Perry's assessment, in a signed Forward column of 19 June 2025, that there was "no serious indication" the United States would invade Iran and "no known plans for ground troops." It is one experienced commentator's public reading of the evidence available that week.

What the article says

Perry writes that Americans could hear President Donald Trump's talk on Iran and think of President George W. Bush before the Iraq War. He cites a Washington Post poll, as he describes it, showing Americans opposed to U.S. airstrikes on Iran by 45 percent to 25 percent, with 30 percent unsure. That poll, in his telling, is about airstrikes, not about an infantry invasion.

He says Iraq went wrong because the United States tried to rebuild a state after toppling Saddam Hussein, including by dismissing the people who ran the old government. He says the result was a long occupation. He then says Iran is a different case.

Most importantly, there is no serious indication that the U.S. intends to invade Iran or carry out regime change through boots on the ground.

Dan Perry, The Forward, 19 June 2025. This is his assessment.

He writes that the action Trump appeared to be considering was a limited airstrike, with deep "bunker-buster" bombs, on Fordow, an Iranian nuclear site buried underground that he says Israeli weapons likely could not reach. He adds: "There are no known plans for ground troops, let alone for the U.S. to reshape Iran's government post-strike." He writes that Iran, with about 90 million people, has about twice the population and four times the land of Iraq, and that invading it would be out of proportion to the goal. He says the likelier path to a fallen government would be an internal coup, not an American occupation.

He still lists dangers from an airstrike: retaliation against U.S. bases in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq, and a possible attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz, the oil lane out of the Persian Gulf. His point is that those risks are not the same as getting stuck rebuilding Iran.

What other reporting and posts add

• What Israel was asking for that week. A post on 14 June 2025 summarizing Axios: "Israel has urged the U.S. to join the military operation against Iran's nuclear program, citing its inability to destroy the heavily fortified Fordow site alone. The U.S. has so far resisted direct involvement, wary of being drawn into war." Post. (capture: twitter/t13__v155.md)
• An unnamed official says more. A 19 June 2025 post citing Axios and an unnamed senior US official: "Israelis are effectively encouraging the US to engage in a ground war with Iran if an air war doesn't immobilize Iranian nuclear sites." It adds that Israelis said they may "do it with humans." The Axios story itself was not in the capture, and the source is anonymous. Post. (capture: twitter/t13__v145.md)
• The first option was bombs. A 18 June 2025 Censor.NET item, citing the Times of Israel: "The most likely of these is the use of giant American bombs against Iran's deeply buried Fordow nuclear facility, which Israeli bombs cannot reach." (capture: twitter/t13__v153.md)
• An Israeli voice against US troops. An Israeli account on 19 June 2025: "I refuse to ask American sons and daughters, who do not share the same sentiment as me to step in for something we are capable of doing ourselves." Post. (capture: twitter/t13__v146.md)
• After the strikes. A video post on 22 June 2025 quotes Vice President Vance: "We have no interest in a protracted conflict… no interest in boots on the ground." Post. (capture: twitter/t50__v595.md)

What it shows

In June 2025, a pro-Israel columnist told American readers there were "no known plans for ground troops" and that they should not be wary. The same week, according to Axios as relayed on X, a senior US official said "Israelis are effectively encouraging the US to engage in a ground war with Iran if an air war doesn't immobilize Iranian nuclear sites." Nine months later CBS reported "detailed preparations for deploying U.S. ground forces into Iran," the Washington Post reported weeks of planned ground operations, and more than 90 Americans went onto Iranian soil in April 2026. The reassurance came first; the plans came after. See A Long Pattern.

Check it yourself

Might Iran become Trump's Iraq? Americans are wary — but shouldn't be, Dan Perry, The Forward, 19 June 2025. The Washington Post poll linked from the column was not opened for this page.

Status: Donald Trump is alive. Dan Perry is alive.

Research captures: twitter/t13__v155.md, twitter/t13__v145.md, twitter/t13__v153.md, twitter/t13__v146.md, twitter/t50__v595.md

Last Updated: 2026-09-26