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Southern Syria: How to stop the Iranian plan for regional dominance
In its Autumn 2017 issue, Fathom Journal published Southern Syria: How to stop the Iranian plan for regional dominance, by Michael Herzog. The page gives the season, not the day. The latest events in the essay are from early September 2017, so it was published after that. Fathom says Herzog had been head of the strategic planning division of the Israel Defense Forces and chief of staff to Israel's minister of defence. An American family should care because he asks the United States and Britain not to pull out soldiers already in Syria. He wants those forces, sent to fight ISIS, considered as a block on an Iranian land route that he says would face Israel.
Evidence rating: MODERATE. The rating covers Michael Herzog's signed recommendation, as a former head of IDF strategic planning, that American and British forces sent to fight ISIS be kept on the ground and considered for blocking Iran's plans. The figure of some 150 US special forces at al-Tanaf is his account of that base.
What the article says
Herzog's subject is southern Syria in 2017, after a US-Russia-Jordan deal to calm the area along the borders with Israel and Jordan. He writes that Israel was not a party to the deal and then rejected it. His wider fear is the line he quotes from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: ISIS out, Iran in. He says Iran was building a land corridor from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon, plus a military hold in Syria, so that a future war could join the Lebanese and Syrian fronts against Israel.
He then lists what he thinks the United States and the United Kingdom should do. The first item is about troops already there.
"Carefully examine if and how their existing military assets on the ground, which were originally deployed to fight ISIS, could be used to block Iran's plans, rather than withdrawing them following the defeat of ISIS."
Michael Herzog, Fathom Journal, Autumn 2017. ISIS is the Islamic State group. The "their" in the sentence is the US and the UK.
His example is the Syria-Iraq-Jordan triangle around the base he spells al-Tanaf. He says that base, and the rebel forces with it, stood in the way of the Iranian corridor. In the appendix he writes that the US-led coalition set up al-Tanaf for the war on ISIS in eastern and northern Syria. He writes that it hosted some 150 US special forces, plus British forces and rebel fighters, including a group he names the Revolutionary Commando Army. He writes that in May 2017 US aircraft bombed a convoy of Syrian government and allied forces moving toward the base, and that the United States then warned those forces not to enter a 55 kilometre zone around it. He writes that Iranian media spoke openly about wanting the Americans and their allies out of al-Tanaf because they blocked Iranian plans.
The other steps on his list are diplomacy: work with Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Kurdish forces; look for limits Russia might accept on Iran; and ask that any long-term Syrian settlement remove non-Syrian militias and Iran's military presence. He is advising.
What other reporting and posts add
The 2026 version of the ask. In the 2026 war, Herzog's successor as Israel's ambassador in Washington, Michael Leiter, would not rule out boots on the ground in Iran, but said on CBS: "our preference is for the boots on the ground to be those of the Iranians." Politico, 8 March 2026. (capture: twitter/t13__v145.md) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on 19 March that regime change needed "a ground component, as well," without saying whose. Just the News, 20 March 2026. (capture: twitter/t13__v147.md)
Kurdish forces as the ground partner, again. Herzog listed Kurdish forces as partners in 2017. In 2026, a reported plan for Iranian Kurdish groups based in Iraq to move into Iran was widely discussed; a September AI-assistant reply on X said it "never materialized" and "collapsed." That is not an official source. @grok, 21 September 2026. (capture: twitter/t01__v010.md) See also US offers air cover for Kurds.
What it shows
A former senior Israeli military planner, who later became Israel's ambassador in Washington, asked in print that American soldiers already on the ground be kept there and turned toward Iran, rather than brought home once their original mission was done. That is the pattern in miniature: American troops positioned against Iran at an Israeli strategist's urging, with Israel's own role described as diplomacy and red lines. In 2026 his successor as ambassador said Israel preferred Iranian boots on the ground, and Israel's Channel 12 reported that Israeli infantry would not join a US ground operation. See A Long Pattern.
Check it yourself
Why a 2017 essay matters in 2026: it is an early, open example of a senior Israeli defense figure asking that American troops already in the region be kept there and pointed at Iran. Fathom Journal is a British online magazine published by BICOM (the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre), a pro-Israel advocacy group in London; its authors generally argue for a hard line on Iran. Michael Herzog later served as Israel's ambassador to the United States (2021 to 2025), which makes his advice to Washington more than a think-tank exercise. By 2026, the United States and Israel were at war with Iran together; that war began on 28 February 2026.
Research captures: twitter/t13__v145.md, twitter/t13__v147.md, twitter/t01__v010.md
Last Updated: 2026-09-26