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Archive | Fathom Forum: Learning from Qassem Soleimani
In its May 2018 issue, Fathom Journal published an edited transcript, Learning from Qassem Soleimani, from remarks Jonathan Paris gave in London on 15 March 2018. The page says he spoke before later air strikes in Syria. It does not name those strikes. Soleimani was Qassem Soleimani, then head of the Quds Force, the foreign arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. An American family should care because Paris says Israel, as a US partner, makes it less necessary to send American troops into the Syria fight, and because he says US-led wars left a gap that Iran filled when American forces left.
Evidence rating: MODERATE. The rating covers Jonathan Paris's analysis, published by Fathom Journal as an edited transcript of his 15 March 2018 London remarks: that Israel, as a US partner, "mitigates the necessity to send US troops," and that Iran filled the space left by departing American forces.
What the article says
Paris's thesis, in the journal's introduction and again in his own words, is that Iran's Revolutionary Guard waited until US-led coalitions had beaten Iran's enemies, then moved into the space left when American forces departed. He names three of those enemies: Saddam Hussein's Iraq, the Taliban in Afghanistan, and ISIS, the Islamic State group. He says the United States did the heavy lifting in people and money, and that Iran coordinated Shia militias and, later, Russian air power.
He says another Iraq or another Afghanistan will not work. He says the local ground fighters in the ISIS war were Syrian Kurds, and he calls them effective boots on the ground. He says they retook Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria in 2017. That is his sentence. This page does not include a battle history, so the line about who retook Mosul is his description only.
He then names Israel as a reason the United States might send fewer of its own soldiers.
"Still another US partner in the Syria mix is Israel, which provides the US an anchor of stability in the region that mitigates the necessity to send US troops there."
Jonathan Paris, speaking in London on 15 March 2018, as published by Fathom Journal in May 2018.
He adds that if President Donald Trump meant to cut the number of US troops in the region, Washington would lean on local partners, including the Kurds, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. He quotes Trump as saying the United States should stop spending huge sums abroad and spend on infrastructure at home. Paris treats that as a political fact to plan around, not as a decision already carried out.
The rest of the talk is about Israeli red lines in Syria, a drone incident in February 2018, and mistakes he thinks Iran had made. He says Israel does not want a war because of the missile fire it would take at home.
What other reporting and posts add
What Israel said about its own soldiers in 2026. Israel's Channel 12 was reported as saying Israel would support a US ground operation in Iran "with airstrikes, intelligence, and airpower, but not infantry due to ongoing fights with Hezbollah in Lebanon and its smaller population," a claim an X summary later said lacked "direct confirmation" on Channel 12's own site. X trend, 30 March 2026; caution card. (captures: twitter/t13__v148.md, twitter/t13__v150.md) The Times of Israel explained that an Israeli ground contribution far from home "is seen as a non-starter," quoting Blaise Misztal of JINSA: "it is unlikely that, should there be any US ground operations against Iran, the IDF would participate overtly." The Times of Israel, 1 April 2026. (capture: twitter/t13__v146.md)
A pre-war argument that Israel costs no US troops. A May 2025 pro-Israel essay posted on X argued that "no US military personnel are put at risk to ensure Israel's safety" and that Israel "defends its own turf with its own troops." That is an argument, written before the 2026 war. (capture: twitter/t13__v150.md) In 2026, the US was reported sending 82nd Airborne soldiers to Israel itself on temporary duty; see Thousands of US Army paratroopers arrive.
What it shows
In 2018 the argument to American audiences was that Israel saves the United States from sending troops. In the 2026 war, Israel's Channel 12 reported that Israel would support a US ground operation in Iran with airstrikes and intelligence, "but not infantry," and the Times of Israel called an Israeli ground contribution "a non-starter." The US, meanwhile, was reported sending 82nd Airborne soldiers to Israel itself and preparing weeks of its own ground operations in Iran. The promise that Israel reduces the need for American soldiers ran the other way when the ground war came. See Israel Keeps Its Infantry Home and A Long Pattern.
Check it yourself
Why a 2018 talk matters in 2026: Jonathan Paris argued that Israel, as a strong US partner, lowers the need to send American troops to the region. In the 2026 US-Israeli war on Iran, which began on 28 February 2026, the same question was asked in reverse: would Israel's partnership pull American troops in, or keep them out? Fathom Journal is a British online magazine published by BICOM (the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre), a pro-Israel advocacy group in London; its authors generally argue for a hard line on Iran.
Research captures: twitter/t13__v148.md, twitter/t13__v150.md, twitter/t13__v146.md
Last Updated: 2026-09-26