← A Long Pattern
Iran is Not Iraq
The Jewish Institute for National Security of America, a Washington think tank that argues for close U.S. military ties with Israel, published Iran is Not Iraq on 4 March 2026. The author is Blaise Misztal. He says the U.S. operation he calls Epic Fury, paired with an Israeli operation he calls Roaring Lions, is not an Iraq-style occupation. An American family should care because he says no U.S. troops are inside Iran to topple the regime. On the same page he writes that the U.S. defense secretary would not rule that out.
Evidence rating: MODERATE. The rating covers Blaise Misztal's JINSA analysis of 4 March 2026: that "for now" there were no US troops inside Iran aiming to topple the regime, that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth refused to rule them out, and that the United States might be supporting Kurdish groups. JINSA is a Washington think tank that argues for close US military ties with Israel.
What the article says
Misztal says critics in Washington are warning that this war will become nation-building, as in Iraq or Afghanistan, or chaos, as in Syria or Libya. He says Iran is different, both as a military campaign and as a country. He says a change of regime would not, by itself, make this a regime-change war with U.S. troops committed to long nation-building.
He describes the campaign as strikes on Iran's weapons and on the institutions he says are used for repression. He names the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, interior and justice ministries, the Basij, and prisons. He writes that what he calls decapitation of the regime serves those aims. He says whether Iranians then build a new government is up to them.
Not only do they not have boots on the ground, but, at least at first, there was no indication that either the United States or Israel is coordinating with or supporting any Iranian groups on the ground.
Blaise Misztal, Jewish Institute for National Security of America, 4 March 2026.
In the sentence just before that, he writes that, for now, although Pete Hegseth refused to rule it out, there are no U.S. troops inside Iran aiming to topple the Islamic Republic. He adds that U.S.-run nation-building is not among the objectives President Trump has articulated.
He quotes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as looking "for the brave Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands." He then writes that the United States might have found some of those Iranians among the Kurds and is more actively working to provide them support against the regime. He treats that support as different from an American occupation.
He says Trump appears open to leaving some version of the current regime in place, under new leaders, if nuclear and missile programs are dismantled. He says the war might be measured in weeks, not years. He writes that American service members have already suffered casualties from Iranian projectiles and will suffer more, but that this will not be the cost of deploying hundreds of thousands of troops.
What other reporting and posts add
The same author on whether Israel would send troops. On 1 April, The Times of Israel, an Israeli English-language news site, quoted Misztal: "Much like during Operation Desert Storm, during which Israel did not participate in ground operations in Iraq despite sustaining Scud missile fire from Iraq, it is unlikely that, should there be any US ground operations against Iran, the IDF would participate overtly." The paper said Israeli troops joining a US ground operation "is seen as a non-starter." The Times of Israel, 1 April 2026. (capture: twitter/t13__v146.md) In other words: if Americans went in, JINSA's analyst expected Israel's army to stay out, at least openly.
Hegseth's words that same day. The defense secretary Misztal mentions told reporters on 4 March, per The New York Times: "We've taken control of Iran's airspace and waterways without boots on the ground." The New York Times, 4 March 2026. (capture: twitter/t52__v620.md) Two days earlier he "would not rule out" ground troops, per The Washington Post. (capture: twitter/t56__v668.md)
The Kurds Misztal mentions. A plan for Iranian Kurdish fighters to move into Iran from Iraq was reported that month; a September AI-assistant reply on X said it "never materialized into an actual offensive." Not an official source. @grok, 21 September 2026. (capture: twitter/t01__v010.md)
What it shows
In the war's first week, a pro-Israel think tank assured Americans this was "not Iraq": no boots on the ground, no hundreds of thousands of troops. Four weeks later the same analyst told the Times of Israel that if there were US ground operations against Iran, the IDF was unlikely to "participate overtly." Between those two statements the Pentagon prepared weeks of ground operations and sent two Marine Expeditionary Units and an 82nd Airborne brigade toward Iran. The reassurance and the expectation that only Americans would go in came from the same source. See A Long Pattern and Israel Keeps Its Infantry Home.
Check it yourself
Iran is Not Iraq, Blaise Misztal, Jewish Institute for National Security of America, 4 March 2026.
Status: Pete Hegseth is alive. Donald Trump is alive. Benjamin Netanyahu is alive.
Who is writing, for a newcomer: the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) is a Washington think tank that argues for close US-Israeli military cooperation and a hard line on Iran. This essay appeared four days after the United States and Israel began bombing Iran on 28 February 2026, when critics were already warning of "another Iraq." Misztal's answer is that there were no American boots on the ground and no plan for an occupation. Read it next to what the same author told an Israeli newspaper a month later about Israel's own soldiers.
Research captures: twitter/t13__v146.md, twitter/t52__v620.md, twitter/t56__v668.md, twitter/t01__v010.md
Last Updated: 2026-09-26