← Kharg Island and the Uranium Raid

The Folly of Seizing Kharg Island

On 1 April 2026, War on the Rocks, an American national-security commentary site, published The Folly of Seizing Kharg Island. Bilal Y. Saab, a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration, writes that President Donald Trump is considering a seizure of Iran's Kharg Island. An American family should care because Saab is talking about Marines going onto Iranian land to hold an oil island, and he says ordering that would be reckless even if the landing itself succeeded.

Evidence rating: MODERATE. The rating covers a former official's account that seizing Kharg Island was under active consideration, written for War on the Rocks. The troop figures on the page come from other news reports he cites.

What the article says

Saab writes that the war was in its fifth week and that US and Israeli strikes had destroyed much of Iran's military power without forcing Tehran to give in. He writes that Iran's Revolutionary Guard had closed the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea lane at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, to ships Tehran did not approve. He writes that oil prices had jumped and that Trump had threatened Iran's energy and water systems if the strait stayed closed, while advisers were reportedly talking with Iran about ending the war.

One option he says Trump is considering is to seize Kharg Island, which he describes as the port for roughly 90 percent of Iran's oil exports. His account of the idea is that occupying the island would cut off an economic lifeline, maybe weaken the regime's chances of survival, and calm world energy markets. Regime here means Iran's government.

He then gives force numbers from other outlets. About 2,000 Marines of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, on the ship USS Tripoli, had already arrived in the region, he writes. A Marine expeditionary unit is a ship-based Marine force built to seize a beach or a small objective. He writes that about 2,500 more Marines from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, on USS Boxer, would join them soon, and that thousands of paratroopers from the Army's 82nd Airborne Division might come as well. He writes that more than 50,000 US troops were then in the Middle East in total. Those are the units built to go ashore, gathered within reach of Kharg.

Saab writes that the Marines could take the island. He says they are built for a forced entry, by air from ships outside the Gulf or by sea through the strait, and that both routes would face Iranian missiles, boats, drones, and mines. He says the harder problem starts after a successful landing. Iran, he writes, can still hit the island from the mainland. Holding it under that fire gets harder the longer the troops stay. One strike that kills many Americans, he writes, would leave Trump with a bad choice: send more troops and expand the war, or pull out. He also writes that taking the island might not reopen the strait, because Iran would still have other ways to hit shipping, and that Iran could last months without that oil money while the fighting got worse.

He says the Marines would take Kharg if they were ordered to. The sentence is conditional. Then he says they should not be sent.

"Sending Marine forces into a dangerous operating environment under such circumstances, no matter how brave and skilled they are, is as reckless as it is counterproductive."

Bilal Y. Saab, War on the Rocks, 1 April 2026.

The page identifies Saab as senior managing director of TRENDS US and a former Pentagon official who oversaw US security cooperation in the Central Command region. The column is marked commentary.

What other reporting and posts add

The option was real. Axios reported on 26 March, as The Independent retold it, that one of four Pentagon options was to "invade or blockade Kharg Island." White House officials called the options "hypothetical." The Independent, 26 March 2026. (capture: twitter/t56__v668.md) LBC reported the same week that "If the 5,000 troops are deployed, the troops would likely sent to a US military base within striking distance of Iran's Kharg island." LBC, 27 March 2026. (capture: twitter/t56__v668.md)

It did not go away after this article. In June, a leaked Army order reported by Ken Klippenstein sent a company of the 82nd Airborne to Israel, tied per an X summary to "joint contingency planning" "for seizing Iranian-controlled Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf and carving out coastal territory inside Iran." X news summary, 8 June 2026. (capture: twitter/t07__v083.md) In July, the World Socialist Web Site, summarizing the Wall Street Journal, said Trump held a Situation Room meeting "to discuss the potential seizure of Kharg Island and other territory along the Strait of Hormuz using U.S. troops." WSWS, 16 July 2026. (capture: twitter/t56__v668.md) See Trump vows to seize Iran's Kharg Island.

A Republican lawmaker's version of Saab's warning. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), after a Pentagon briefing, said on CNN, as LBC reported: "I don't think Lindsey Graham, for all of that hubris, has thought through or wargamed the consequences of us taking Kharg Island." (capture: twitter/t56__v668.md)

What it shows

Saab's warning exists because the Kharg landing was a live option, not a thought experiment. In the same weeks, Marines and paratroopers were moving into the region, and the Washington Post reported Pentagon preparations for weeks of ground operations aimed at the coast and islands near the Strait of Hormuz. Israel's own Channel 12 reported that Israeli soldiers would not join such an operation. If Kharg is taken, the Marines who hold it under drone and missile fire will be American. See Kharg Island and the Uranium Raid and Israel Keeps Its Infantry Home.

Check it yourself

The Folly of Seizing Kharg Island, Bilal Y. Saab, War on the Rocks, 1 April 2026. No second source was opened for this page.

Status: Donald Trump is alive.

For a newcomer: the United States and Israel began bombing Iran on 28 February 2026, and Iran answered by closing the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping. Kharg Island is a small island off Iran's coast where most of Iran's oil exports are loaded. War on the Rocks is a widely read online publication on US national security, written largely by former officials, officers, and scholars. The author served as a Pentagon official in Trump's first term, which makes his "don't do it" notable.

Research captures: twitter/t56__v668.md, twitter/t07__v083.md

Last Updated: 2026-09-26