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The Army's Own Math, 2007: 750,000 to Invade, 1.25 Million to Occupy, and a Draft

In June 2007, the US Army Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, the Army's graduate school for mid-career officers, accepted a master's thesis by Maj. Bruce W. Terry titled "The Use of Land Power to Counter the Iranian Nuclear Proliferation Challenge." It asks a question the country is asking again in 2026: what would it take to use American ground forces against Iran? His answer, nineteen years ago, contained the same two numbers that dominate the 2026 debate: 750,000 troops, and a draft.

Evidence rating: CONFIRMED that the thesis exists, was accepted on 15 June 2007, and contains the figures and sentences quoted below (PDF). It is an unclassified officer's thesis, written from open sources.

Three ground options​

Terry compared three ways to use land forces against Iran's nuclear sites:

  1. Invasion and occupation of the country.
  2. A strategic raid on the known nuclear sites.
  3. A special-operations raid on a single site.

He judged invasion feasible with great effort and the most suitable ground option, because it alone gives certainty of effect. He judged it not acceptable because of the cost. He found the raid options weak on feasibility or no better than bombing from the air. Those two raid options are the shape of the 2026 plans: raids on the coast and a special-forces operation to seize Iran's uranium. See Kharg Island and the uranium raid.

The numbers​

"In a conventional fight against an equal opponent, the US would need at least an equal number of troops to conduct an invasion, 750,000 troops."

He added up Iran's active army, Revolutionary Guard, and militia to reach that equal-opponent figure, then noted Iran's real strength would be the will of its people to resist, and that an invasion would probably unite the country.

For the occupation, using a minimum of 20 counterinsurgency troops per 1,000 residents, he put the force at about 1.25 million to control a country of 69 million people. Adding the Army's other worldwide commitments, about 500,000, he wrote that the total Army requirement would be at least 2 million.

"First, a force of 1.25 million Americans would likely require a draft to fill the ranks with soldiers."

He wrote that such a draft would be a political decision to deny a large number of American citizens their liberty to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear threat; that mobilization would take a minimum of four years under ideal circumstances; and that, at a high-end assumption of 5 percent casualties a year, an occupation army of 1.25 million would lose about 62,500 soldiers a year.

Scaled to today​

Terry used a population of 69 million. Iran now has about 90 million. The same ratio of 20 per 1,000 gives about 1.8 million.

The same numbers, nineteen years later​

  • On 30 August 2026, the Jerusalem Post published a column by AJ Jaff saying a ground campaign would need "between 750 thousand and 1.5 million American troops," against an Army of about 452,000, and proposing debt forgiveness to recruit them. His low number is Terry's invasion number. See the Jerusalem Post column.
  • In May 2019, Malcolm Nance posted: "Any war with Iran would require 500,000 troops and the return to the draft" (X).
  • In September 2012, Lawrence Wilkerson, former chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell, said regime change "is going to take 500,000 troops, ten years and $2 trillion to $3 trillion" (Corporate Crime Reporter, 28 Sep 2012).
  • In March 2026, Policy Tensor: "The US cannot occupy Iran even with a draft" (X).

Why it matters​

This is not an outside critic guessing. It is the Army's own graduate school accepting a serving officer's arithmetic. The Army knew in 2007 that a ground war to hold Iran meant roughly a million and a quarter Americans and a draft. Nothing about Iran's size has shrunk since. What changed is that Congress has since made draft registration automatic. See Reserves, the Guard, and the road to a draft.

The article page for this document: a214.

Status: Bruce W. Terry is alive. Lawrence Wilkerson is alive. Malcolm Nance is alive.

Last Updated: 2026-09-26

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