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The Draft Wargame: Selective Service's Readiness Simulation Software

Evidence rating: CONFIRMED that, during the war on Iran, Selective Service asked companies first for a "Conscription Readiness Model" and then for software that simulates the entire draft, including the men who refuse to show up, and that it runs regular draft mobilization exercises. STRONG for this page's reading: this is the planning brain of the draft machine, built to push the largest possible number of young men through with the least friction.

What it is, in one paragraph​

On July 22, 2026, in the fifth month of the U.S. war on Iran, the Selective Service System (SSS) posted solicitation 90MC26Q0005, "READINESS SIMULATION (RS) for Selective Service System," on SAM.gov, the federal contracting site. The software must model "the full end-to-end SSS mobilization pipeline": registration, the lottery, induction notices, delivery of men to military processing stations, classification, and the conscientious objectors diverted to civilian work, including "no-shows" and "claims processing." Military Times headlined it: "Selective Service System wants to wargame the draft" (Military Times, July 24, 2026).

It started in May as a "Conscription Readiness Model"​

The July request was not the first step. On May 20, 2026, the agency posted a Request for Information for "the design, development, and delivery of a government-owned predictive Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model." Its attached files were titled "Conscription Readiness Model Simulation" (SAM.gov, May 20, 2026). The public name softened between May and July. The agency's own file name did not.

Go deeper: the "Conscription Readiness Model": May 2026

What the July request asks for​

In the government's own words, the tool shall "1) Evaluate staffing and resource requirements 2) Compare mobilization and policy scenarios 3) Assess the operational impact of surge conditions 4) Identify throughput risks, delays, and bottlenecks 5) Support executive planning and reporting obligations." The simulation must model "the full end-to-end SSS mobilization pipeline," support "configurable scenarios," provide "decision-support analytics," run in "an SSS-designated cloud environment," use "anonymized aggregate data," and belong entirely to the government (SAM.gov). Quotes were due August 14, 2026. The agency explained that it "currently relies on manual analysis, legacy modeling approaches, outdated assumptions, and historical datasets that do not fully reflect modern demographics, communications channels, throughput constraints, or operational readiness conditions."

Go deeper: solicitation 90MC26Q0005, line by line

It plans around refusal​

The model must "represent MEPS throughput, no-shows, medical disqualification rates, claims processing, and ASP diversion." Those five terms are the five ways a drafted man ends up not going: he does not show up, he fails the exam, he files a claim, he is sent to alternative service as a conscientious objector, or the station is too slow to process him. A planner who can model each of them can decide how many extra notices to mail, how many boards to staff, and how fast to move claims. That is what the software is for. The agency's standing target is the first inductees "within 193 days from the onset of a crisis."

Go deeper: no-shows, claims, and objectors

A general draft or a special-skills draft​

The draft-resistance researcher Edward Hasbrouck, who has read the agency's exercise papers, describes the purchase as software "to carry out weekly simulations of activation of either a general draft or a “special-skills draft” such as the HCPDS but potentially also encompassing other occupations" (Hasbrouck). HCPDS is the agency's standby plan to draft doctors and nurses. Two weeks before the request, Responsible Statecraft published the agency's January 2026 exercise, in which the White House asks for "a plan to begin a specialized skills national service draft in 30 days" and the Department of War asks for "1 million inductees in 15 mos." See special skills first.

Four draft exercises a year​

The simulator sits inside a larger readiness push. The agency's five-year plan commits to "a progressive exercise program (tabletop → full-scale)," with a target of "Mobilization Exercises: 4/year of increasing complexity." Partners named: the Department of War, the U.S. Military Entrance Processing Command, the Department of Homeland Security, the Army War College, the service academies, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The plan says it supports the 2026 National Defense Strategy "by ensuring the Nation retains the capability to rapidly expand military manpower in a high-end national emergency" (SSS Strategic Plan FY 2026–2030). That strategy, as quoted by one analyst, calls for "nothing short of a national mobilization," likening it to the buildup for the two world wars (@UnplugTheEmpire, June 23, 2026).

The data question​

The request says the simulation will "use anonymized aggregate data." That describes the planning model. It does not describe the rest of the machine. The separate automatic-registration system, starting December 18, 2026, will hold named records pulled from Social Security, tax, immigration, and motor-vehicle files, with current addresses. The simulation tells planners how many men to call and where the system will jam; the registration system tells them which men and where they live. Commentator Ben Swann put the two halves together: "Officials call it 'anonymized aggregate data,' but the system is still designed to find specific people and call them up for service" (@BenSwann_, July 30, 2026).

Go deeper: "anonymized aggregate data"

Stress-testing the plan​

Mario Nawfal, a widely followed news aggregator, wrote on August 8, 2026: "The draft isn't coming back tomorrow, but the machinery got a major upgrade." He called the simulation and automatic registration "two different moves," and then: "Still, the combination is the clearest signal yet that the contingency plans are being taken out of the drawer and stress-tested" (@MarioNawfal). Jackie Singh, a security researcher, put it more sharply the night the story broke: "They mean they want to wargame, using demographic data, how they will compel millions of American men to serve in their forever wars" (Singh on X, July 24, 2026; see her follow-up post).

What a citizen can check​

  • Look up solicitation 90MC26Q0005 on SAM.gov and watch for the award notice, which will name the vendor and price.
  • Once awarded, the contract will appear on USAspending.gov under "Selective Service System."
  • Ask your representative whether the finished model will ever be connected to the named registration records, and whether its results will be shared with the Department of War.

Sources​

Status: Edward Hasbrouck, Mario Nawfal, Ben Swann, and Jackie Singh are alive.

Research captures: twitter/t61__v721.md, t61__v724.md, t63__v745.md, t65__v773.md, t67__v798.md, t68__v805.md, t68__v807.md, t68__v816.md

Last Updated: 2026-09-26

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