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The "Conscription Readiness Model": Selective Service's May 2026 Request

Evidence rating: CONFIRMED. The notice, its number, its dates, and its file names are on SAM.gov, the federal contracting site.

What happened​

On May 20, 2026, less than three months into the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran, the Selective Service System (SSS) posted a Request for Information on SAM.gov. A Request for Information (RFI) is market research: the government tells companies what it wants and asks what they can offer, before it asks for bids.

The notice says: "This is a Request for Information (RFI) on behalf of the Selective Service System (SSS). The SSS is seeking additional information for market research and future procurement purposes for the design, development, and delivery of a government-owned predictive Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model." Responses were due May 29, 2026, after an extension (SAM.gov Special Notice).

The name the agency chose​

The attached files were titled "RFI 9000_26_0003 - Conscription Readiness Model Simulation _ MAY 2026.pdf" and three question-and-answer sheets titled "Conscription Simulation Model." The listed government contact was a Selective Service contracting official, Georgette Hendricksen.

"Conscription" is not a word an agency uses by accident. Its public materials talk about "registration" and "readiness." Its own file names, meant for contractors, talk about conscription.

What a "predictive discrete event simulation" is​

A discrete event simulation is a standard planning model. It follows items through a series of steps and counts where lines back up. A hospital uses one to model patients through an emergency room. A port uses one to model containers through cranes and trucks. Here the items are young men, and the steps are the stages of a draft: registration, lottery, induction notice, delivery to a processing station, medical exam, claims for deferment, and assignment. "Predictive" means the model is meant to forecast what will happen under a given set of assumptions, such as how many men will not show up.

What came next​

Two months later, on July 22, 2026, the agency turned market research into a purchase: a Request for Quote for a "Readiness Simulation" tool that models "the full end-to-end SSS mobilization pipeline" (the July request). The public name had softened from "Conscription Readiness Model" to "Readiness Simulation." The job had not changed.

Why it matters​

A model of a draft pipeline is the planning half of a draft. It tells the agency how many induction notices to send to get the number of soldiers the Pentagon asks for, where the bottlenecks are, and how much refusal the system can absorb. The agency's 2026 exercise imagined the Department of War asking for "1 million inductees in 15 mos." (exercise guide, FOIA). A conscription model is how you check whether you can deliver that.

Sources​

Last Updated: 2026-09-26

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