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No-Shows, Claims, and Objectors: How the Simulation Plans Around Refusal

Evidence rating: CONFIRMED that the draft simulation must model "no-shows," "claims processing," and "ASP diversion," the three ways a drafted man can refuse or step aside. STRONG for this page's reading: a model that counts refusal is a model for overpowering it.

Every way to say no, in the agency's words​

The Readiness Simulation must "represent MEPS [Military Entrance Processing Stations] throughput, no-shows, medical disqualification rates, claims processing, and ASP diversion" (Military Times, July 24, 2026). In plain words:

  • No-shows are men who receive an induction notice and do not report. That is the classic act of draft resistance.
  • Claims processing is the handling of requests for deferment or exemption (hardship, ministry, medical) by local draft boards. It is the legal way to ask not to go.
  • ASP diversion is the Alternative Service Program: conscientious objectors who are sent to civilian work instead of the military.
  • Medical disqualification rates are the share of men who fail the physical and mental exams.
  • MEPS throughput is how many men the processing stations can examine and swear in per day.

Every one of these is a way a man ends up not going. The simulation's job, in the government's words, is to "Identify throughput risks, delays, and bottlenecks" and "Assess the operational impact of surge conditions" (SAM.gov). A planner who knows the no-show rate knows how many extra notices to mail. A planner who knows how fast claims move knows how many board members to add, or how to shorten the process. That is what "decision-support analytics" means here.

The numbers the model is built around​

The agency's standing target is to "deliver the first inductees to the military within 193 days from the onset of a crisis" (SSS "Return to the Draft," archived December 2020). A widely shared account of a 2025 law-review article said the agency's own planning figure is "500,000 induction notices would be required to yield 100,000 conscripts within 193 days," and that a Center for a New American Security war game found that "even under “best-case” assumptions, the current system would fail to provide the necessary manpower" (@UnplugTheEmpire, June 23, 2026). Five notices for every soldier. The model exists to shrink that ratio.

Part of the gap is fitness. The law review's author, John L. Markel, wrote that "of the males in the current age range of conscription, 18–25, only 23% are eligible to serve without a waiver" (Markel, West Virginia Law Review, September 2025). Part of it is refusal. The model counts both.

The exercise that asked for a million​

The agency's January 2026 exercise imagined the Department of War asking for "1 million inductees in 15 mos." (exercise guide, FOIA). At five notices per soldier, that is on the order of five million notices. The simulation is the tool for finding out whether the machine can push that many men through, and what share of refusal it can absorb without failing.

A commentator described the model's reach in one line: it is "meant to model the full draft pipeline, including registration, selection, notification, delivery, classification, and even what happens when someone refuses" (Ben Swann, July 30, 2026).

The human part being thinned​

Claims are decided by local boards of volunteer citizens and by appeal boards. Those boards have been shrinking. Jackie Singh, citing agency figures obtained by Edward Hasbrouck, reported that board membership fell from 9,596 in March 2021 to 5,802 in March 2025, and that the National Appeal Board had one member (Singh, March 9, 2026). Responsible Statecraft: "Draft boards that would have to make life-and-death decisions about who to send to war have received only cursory training" (Responsible Statecraft, March 10, 2026). A model that treats claims as "throughput" sits beside a board system with fewer and fewer people in it.

Objectors on the government's own site​

The Center on Conscience & War, which has counseled objectors for more than 85 years, said in June 2026 that "all info on the website for the Selective Service System (the draft) about Conscientious Objection is a dead link," and that "This denies 19 million draft-eligible youth vital facts about their rights" (@CCW4COs, June 10, 2026). The post drew about 1,700 likes and 950 reposts. The same agency is paying to model how many objectors it will divert. See conscientious objectors in 2026.

Sources​

Status: John L. Markel, Ben Swann, Jackie Singh, and Edward Hasbrouck are alive.

Last Updated: 2026-09-26

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