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"It'll Be Over in Weeks": The Forecasts vs. Seven Months of War

The forecasts​

  • 7 March 2026: Operation Epic Fury was "expected to run 4–6 weeks" (@aj_inapi).
  • 9 March 2026: "this is not a forever war. No ground troops. He expects it over in roughly three weeks" (M.A. Rothman summarizing Victor Davis Hanson, X).
  • 17 March 2026, the President: "We're not ready to leave yet, but we will be leaving in the near future," and, asked about a Vietnam-style quagmire, "No, I'm not afraid of - I'm really not afraid of anything" (Owen Gregorian roundup).
  • May 2026: Representative Byron Donalds described the operation as limited and "succinct," not another endless war, summing up the President's philosophy as "if you mess with me, I'm going to come over, blow up all your stuff, and then go home" (as described by AMERICA 24, 21 May 2026).

The calendar​

  • 8 April: a ceasefire began, then did not hold. 12 April: talks in Islamabad failed; Vice President Vance: "The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement"; the Navy was ordered to begin "BLOCKADING" Hormuz (Clayton Wood essay).
  • 10 June: "Yeah. We are," asked whether bombing was resuming (@Osint613).
  • 21 July: Iran's president declared a "full-scale war," day 143 by one count (X search snippet, 24 July 2026).
  • 23 September: "nearly seven months of war" (Al Jazeera via @rjtees1).

"Meanwhile, we are six weeks into a war that we were told would be over weeks ago. We've depleted our stockpiles and nobody knows what to do next but the only thing nobody wants to do, which is send in warm bodies," wrote one former supporter in April (@LostMyHats, 6 April 2026).

Why it matters to a parent​

A short war is fought by the troops you have. A long war runs out of them. The forecasts of weeks became months; the Army raised its enlistment age; and the law to register every young man automatically moved forward. See Is a Draft Coming?

Sources​

Status: Victor Davis Hanson: Alive. Byron Donalds: Alive. JD Vance: Alive.

Last Updated: 2026-09-26

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