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← The June 2025 Twelve-Day War

After the Ceasefire: From Twelve Days to the 2026 War

Evidence rating: CONFIRMED for the main events; MODERATE for reported plans. Eight months after the June 2025 ceasefire, on February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a far larger joint war on Iran (Operation Epic Fury and Israel's Operation Roaring Lion). Ali Khamenei was killed, the Strait of Hormuz was closed, a Pakistan-brokered pause and a June memorandum collapsed, and by late September 2026 the Pentagon had disclosed 19 US service members dead. The Pentagon prepared plans for US ground raids inside Iran; as of this writing, the sources we checked do not show a full ground invasion carried out.

The twelve-day war was sold as the end of the problem: the nuclear program "obliterated," peace to follow. It turned out to be the first round. This page covers what came after, briefly, and points to the sections of this investigation that go deeper.

Go deeper: Later US assessments · Joe Kent's resignation · Netanyahu's campaign and the joint war · The missing uranium · Risk to American troops · The 2026 war bill · Iran suspends cooperation

July 2025 to February 2026: the inter-war months​

  • In early July 2025, Iran suspended cooperation with IAEA inspectors, so no one outside Iran could confirm where its enriched uranium was. The IAEA still did not know nine months after the strikes (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 29, 2026).
  • In mid-July 2025, the Times of Israel, summarizing NBC, reported that the United States and Israel were discussing new strikes on Natanz and Isfahan if Iran rebuilt or avoided talks (Times of Israel, July 17, 2025).
  • Iran's President signed a law suspending cooperation with the IAEA in early July 2025 (Al Jazeera, July 2, 2025). Foreign Minister Araghchi said inspections at the damaged sites were "meaningless" and could "possibly be malign in intent," and Iranian officials accused the IAEA of having shared information used to target their scientists, a charge the agency's supporters reject; the State Department's spokesperson, Tammy Bruce, called the suspension "unacceptable" (as summarized by WikiLeaks on X, July 7, 2025).
  • In late August 2025, Britain, France, and Germany triggered the "snapback" of United Nations sanctions lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal. Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute warned it "could provide useful political cover—a thin veneer of legitimacy—for renewed attacks," and noted that "Iran was at the negotiating table when Israel and the US began bombing it" (Parsi on X, August 28, 2025).
  • Iran rebuilt its missile force. CNN reported in October 2025 that Chinese chemical shipments could fuel about 2,000 of the missiles of the type Iran fired at Israel (as summarized by FDD's Behnam Ben Taleblu; CNN, October 29, 2025). By November, The Economist reported that "many Israelis believe another war with Iran is coming" (The Economist, November 27, 2025). In December 2025, according to NBC News as reported by the New York Post, Netanyahu planned to pitch Trump on new strikes at Mar-a-Lago over Iran's missile rebuilding (as relayed by @TheRealSantino).
  • Iran's military changed its doctrine. The chief of its General Staff said in February 2026: "After the twelve-day war, we conducted a review of our defense doctrine and switched to an offensive doctrine," warning that "no American will be safe" (as posted by Sprinter Press).
  • Diplomacy resumed and was overtaken. Investigative reporter Emily Kopp compiled the dates: on February 12, 2026, the IAEA's chief said it was the agency's "firm assessment" that Iran's uranium stockpile was buried underground; and "hours before the attack, Omani Foreign Minister al-Busaidi said that Iran was ready to give up stockpiling enriched uranium and would downblend the buried stuff into non-weapons grade" (Kopp on X, March 1, 2026). Araghchi later claimed both delegations confirmed "significant progress" at Geneva on February 26 and that Iran "was ready to give it up, to down-blend it," referring to its 440 kilograms of 60 percent uranium; "two days later, the bombs began to fall" (as quoted by DD Geopolitics, March 14, 2026). That is Iran's account. Meanwhile, on February 22, Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News Iran was "probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material" (as quoted by @shanaka86), a claim hard to square with the June 2025 "obliterated."

February 28, 2026: Operation Epic Fury​

On February 28, 2026, President Trump announced in a video that the United States was conducting "major combat operations" against Iran, saying, "We're going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground." The Israeli companion operation was named Roaring Lion (FDD Action policy alert, February 28, 2026). The Israeli Air Force described it as the largest combat sortie in its history (Wikipedia, 2026 Iran war).

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening strikes, along with senior commanders (Wikipedia, 2026 Iran war; Britannica). A strike near a naval base in Minab hit a girls' school and reportedly killed about 170 people; the United States and Israel denied deliberately targeting it (Britannica, "What is Operation Epic Fury?").

Note the contrast with June 2025. The 2025 War Powers letter said "Iranian troops and other military facilities were not targeted." The 2026 war targeted the country's leadership, military, and, per Trump's own words, its whole missile industry.

Was the nuclear program the reason?​

Three weeks into the 2026 war, on March 18, DNI Gabbard's statement to the Senate said the June 2025 strikes had "obliterated" enrichment and "there has been no efforts since then to try to rebuild." Asked about an imminent threat, she said only the president decides that (TIME, March 18, 2026). If that is correct, the 2026 war was not about an imminent Iranian bomb. See The "Obliterated" Claim. The day before, Gabbard had posted on her official account: "As our Commander in Chief, he is responsible for determining what is and is not an imminent threat," and "President Trump concluded that the terrorist Islamist regime in Iran posed an imminent threat and he took action based on that conclusion" (@DNIGabbard, March 17, 2026). Two days earlier, Sen. Mark Warner said on CBS's Face the Nation: "There was no imminent threat to the United States, and I don't believe there was even an imminent threat to Israel from Iran... The decision to go to war in this case was a choice by President Trump" (Face the Nation on X, March 15, 2026).

Joe Kent, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned in protest. On camera he said: "All 18 of America's intelligence agencies agreed — Iran had no capacity to develop a nuclear bomb," and "But Israel was telling us they would be able to assemble ten bombs in two weeks" (video posted by @allenanalysis, March 22, 2026). In a later interview with Responsible Statecraft, as reported by EIR, he said that after Operation Midnight Hammer "the circle shrunk down to just the president and a handful of advisers," and that the war could not end "until Israel is taken out of the loop" (as posted by @ZeppLaRouche, May 23, 2026). He ran the agency charged with protecting Americans from attack; see Joe Kent's Resignation. Gabbard announced her resignation as DNI in May 2026 (CNBC, May 22, 2026).

Ground troops: what was planned​

This is the point where the twelve-day war connects to the rest of this investigation. In June 2025 the War Powers letter said "no United States ground forces" were used. In March 2026 that changed:

  • The Washington Post reported on March 29, 2026 that the Pentagon was preparing for weeks of possible ground operations in Iran, including "raids by special operations and conventional infantry troops" against Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal, and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz, as summarized by Al Jazeera. About 3,500 troops had arrived on the USS Tripoli with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, with thousands from the 82nd Airborne Division to follow.
  • The White House press secretary said: "It's the job of the Pentagon to make preparations in order to give the Commander in Chief maximum optionality. It does not mean the president has made a decision" (same report).
  • The United States bombed Kharg Island's military targets on March 13, 2026; a ground seizure was reported as planned and debated, not carried out (CNN, April 7, 2026; The National, March 31, 2026).
  • X trend cards captured for this investigation summarized an Israeli Channel 12 report in late March 2026 that Israel would support any US ground operation in Iran with airstrikes and intelligence but would not send its own ground troops. We did not open the Channel 12 broadcast; treat this as a lead to confirm.

The articles and videos about American soldiers on Iranian soil are collected in American Soldiers on the Ground in Iran — Articles and — Videos. The legal machinery for a draft is on The Draft Law.

Hormuz, ceasefires, and collapse​

  • Late March 2026. Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to ships going to or from ports of the United States, Israel, and their allies (Wikipedia, 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis).
  • April 8, 2026. Pakistan announced a two-week US–Iran pause, with Iran agreeing to reopen the strait (Al Jazeera video, April 8, 2026).
  • June 3, 2026. Asked by a reporter how he defines a ceasefire, Trump said: "In that part of the world, ceasefire is when you're shooting in a more moderate manner" (video, @Osint613).
  • June 17, 2026. A memorandum of understanding to end the war was signed; in July the ceasefire collapsed after Iranian attacks on shipping (Wikipedia, 2026 Iran war; Congressional Research Service R45281). US Central Command announced on July 7: "U.S. Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran... Iran's demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire" (CENTCOM statement as quoted in a reply thread on X). The New York Times later reported that Iranian hardliners and a spymaster were behind the July ship attacks that sabotaged the peace deal (Farnaz Fassihi on X, September 13, 2026; NYT).
  • September 9, 2026. The IAEA's Board of Governors voted 23 to 3, with eight abstentions, to report Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in 20 years; Russia, China, and Niger voted no. The agency estimated that more than 200 kg of Iran's 60 percent uranium remained at one site (Reuters).
  • August 30, 2026. The United States struck Larak Island to stop Iranian mine-laying; Iran fired missiles and drones at two US bases in Jordan, "the first flare-up in violence between the two sides since late July" (Al Jazeera, August 30, 2026).
  • September 2026. Two days before the September 24 Senate vote, Trump said at the UN that he could "annihilate the Islamic Republic" (The National, September 24, 2026). On September 26, several accounts citing a Wall Street Journal report, as relayed by the Times of Israel and the Jerusalem Post, said Trump had rejected a seven-day ceasefire proposal and told aides he expected to resume bombing after the November midterms; Reuters "could not immediately verify the report." The same summary quotes Araghchi that a deal "would be much better if it is done before the midterm election," and Trump that Iran will deal "right after the election" because "they're waiting to see how I do" (@theinformant_x, September 26, 2026). We have not seen the Journal article; treat it as MODERATE.

The cost this time​

  • Lives. By September 22, 2026, the Pentagon had disclosed 19 US service members dead and more than 820 wounded; five US officials told the Washington Post the real toll was at least 22 (Spokesman-Review / Washington Post). Iranian deaths are counted in the thousands (Wikipedia, 2026 Iran war).
  • Public support. Only 34 percent in a Reuters/Ipsos poll the week of September 24 approved of the strikes, and the war "has pushed up food and fuel prices" (The National).
  • Congress. A non-binding resolution to remove US forces passed both chambers in June 2026 and was ignored; the Senate has rejected most others. Details: What the War Cost Americans, and Who Voted.

Status: Donald Trump, Tulsi Gabbard, Benjamin Netanyahu, Steve Witkoff, Joe Kent, Mark Warner, Abbas Araghchi, and Trita Parsi are alive, as far as these sources show. Ali Khamenei is deceased (2026).

What a citizen can check​

  • Put the June 23, 2025 War Powers letter ("no United States ground forces") next to the March 29, 2026 reports of Marines and paratroopers staged for raids. Ask what changed, and who asked for it.
  • Ask your representative one question: will you vote on any use of US ground forces in Iran before it happens?

Sources on this page​

Last Updated: 2026-09-26

Research captures: twitter/t82__v976.md, t82__v978.md, t82__v980.md, t84__v1002.md, t84__v1003.md, t85__v1012.md, t85__v1013.md, t85__v1016.md, t86__v1024.md, t86__v1028.md, t87__v1036.md, t87__v1039.md, t87__v1042.md, t89__v1064.md, t90__v1077.md

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