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← Cost and War Powers

Oil, Diesel, and the Pump

Evidence rating: CONFIRMED for the June 2025 oil moves (Gulf News, Al Jazeera, All India Radio). STRONG for the 2026 pump prices, from daily trackers citing national averages.

Most Americans feel a war in the Middle East at the gas station. The twelve-day war was a warning shot: a short price spike, a lasting diesel problem, and a preview of what happened when the war came back.

June 2025: a spike, then a drop​

  • Brent crude rose from about $69 a barrel on June 12 to about $76 by June 17, then fell back below $70 after the ceasefire (Gulf News; Al Jazeera, June 24, 2025).
  • After Iran's warned-about strike on Al Udeid showed it was not going after oil, prices had their biggest one-day fall in five years (All India Radio).
  • The reason it was short: Iran's parliament voted to back closing the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran did not do it (CNBC). The June 2025 war "involved no Hormuz closure, no insurance withdrawal" (@shanaka86, March 9, 2026).

Diesel: the Haifa refinery​

Iranian missiles hit Israel's refinery at Haifa (S2 Underground, June 14, 2025). A month later, OilPrice.com reported that damage to regional refineries, "especially the refinery at Haifa," had "been the primary driver of higher diesel prices in North America and Europe in the last two months" (OilPrice.com, July 30, 2025). Diesel moves trucks, tractors and freight. It reaches every grocery bill.

2026: the warning comes true​

When the United States and Israel went back to war with Iran on February 28, 2026, Iran closed the strait to ships tied to the US and Israel. The pump showed it:

Before the war (Feb 26, 2026)September 2026
Regular gasoline$2.983$4.4918 on Sept 25, up 50.6%
Dieselrecord $6.5276 on Sept 22

Source: @MFTXAC daily tracker, September 26, 2026.

  • Researchers at Brown University estimated Americans paid an extra $42 billion for gasoline and diesel in the first ten weeks, more than $300 per family (Sprinter Press, May 20, 2026).
  • By September 2026, Newsmax reported "Iran War Fuel Costs for Americans Top $100 Billion" (Newsmax, September 16, 2026).
  • Farmers felt it in fertilizer: urea prices up 87 percent, with farm bankruptcies rising (@shanaka86, April 27, 2026).

What was promised​

The President posted that gas would be "Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars," and that "Iran will never have a Nuclear Weapon" (as preserved in the research captures). He also said, "We made around 25 times the cost of the war through Venezuelan oil" (research captures). The daily tracker above is the answer a family can check.

Sources​

Last Updated: 2026-09-26

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