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The Leaked Israeli Deliberations: "Fordo Will Be Destroyed Only if the US Attacks It"

Evidence rating: STRONG. The quotes below were published in September 2025 by Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), as "leaked transcripts of Israeli deliberations during 12-day war." His post does not name the outlet that first published them. Every point they make about America's role is matched by what Israel's leaders later said in public: that Fordow needed American bombers, that Netanyahu led a "diplomatic campaign" to get them, and that the threat was years away, not days.

What the documents are​

On September 15, 2025, Abdi posted excerpts from what he described as minutes of Israel's security cabinet meetings during the war (Abdi on X). The post was seen more than 320,000 times. He drew three conclusions from them, in his words:

  • "There was no imminent threat."
  • "Dragging the U.S. into war was central to plan."
  • "Targeting Iranian civilians and infrastructure was and remains an Israeli objective."

Here is what the excerpts say, in the order he gave them.

"Within a few years": the size of the threat​

Netanyahu, at the meeting's outset: "We are at a historic moment with a crucial decision. If we don't stop [them], within a few years, they will get tens of thousands of kilograms of [nuclear] explosives."

Compare that to what Americans were told in public. Trump said Iran was "very close." His special envoy later said Iran was "a week away." But the Israeli prime minister, speaking to his own cabinet, put the danger "within a few years." That is the same order of magnitude as the American intelligence estimate CNN reported the week of the strikes: Iran was "up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver" a weapon (CNN, as quoted by The Column). See The Nuclear Case Versus the Intelligence.

"If the US cooperates with us": America built into the plan​

  • IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir: "Everything can be done very fast. If the US cooperates with us, we can make the hit within 48 hours."
  • An unnamed senior military official: "Fordo will be destroyed only if the US attacks it."
  • Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer said that, while speaking on the phone with Trump, Netanyahu had "pushed and maneuvered" Trump to make a decision on sending American refueling planes to assist the Israeli strikes.

These three lines are the heart of this investigation's finding about June 2025. Israel's generals knew they could not destroy Iran's deepest site alone. The American B-2 was part of the plan. And Israel's prime minister worked the phone with the American President to get American help, first refueling tankers, then bombers.

Netanyahu confirmed the substance himself on June 24, when he called the American strike "the fruit of a diplomatic campaign I led with [Strategic Affairs] Minister Ron Dermer" (Times of Israel, as quoted by Hugh Hewitt).

"Civilian national infrastructure": the argument over targets​

The excerpts also record an argument about hitting Iran's civilian infrastructure:

  • Defense Minister Israel Katz: "relocating the population is practical and symbolic. We should strike civilian national infrastructure that destabilizes the leader." And: "There are military targets in Tehran amid the population." And: "If [Iran] targets power stations, we won't have a dilemma. We'll attack civil infrastructure now, even though they are targets we want to keep for later."
  • Dermer disagreed: "If we attack civilian infrastructure now, it could end the war before we achieve our objectives and before an attack on Fordo."

Read Dermer's objection closely. He was not arguing that striking civilian infrastructure was wrong. He was arguing about timing: hitting it too early might end the war "before an attack on Fordo," the attack only the United States could carry out. Even the debate about Iranian civilians turned on keeping the war going until America joined.

Israel did strike energy sites during the war, including Iranian fuel facilities on June 14 and the oil depot at Shahrak, still burning six weeks later (S2 Underground; @Osint613). See Civilian Harm.

How the leak fits the public record​

What the minutes sayWhat happened in public
Threat "within a few years"US intelligence: "not building a nuclear weapon" (March 2025); CNN: "up to three years away" (June 17)
"If the US cooperates with us""An emergency Pentagon meeting discusses Israel's request to intervene" (NBC, June 15)
"Fordo will be destroyed only if the US attacks it"Israel's jets never damaged Fordow; America dropped twelve bunker-busters on it June 22
Netanyahu "pushed and maneuvered" TrumpNetanyahu: the strike was "the fruit of a diplomatic campaign I led" (June 24)

What a citizen can do with this​

Find the original publication. Abdi's post does not name the outlet, and a reader should ask NIAC or search Israeli media for the full text. But notice that nothing in the excerpts contradicts what Israel's leaders later said on the record. It only says it more bluntly, in private, before the outcome was known.

Status: Benjamin Netanyahu, Eyal Zamir, Ron Dermer, Israel Katz and Jamal Abdi are alive, as far as these sources show.

Sources​

Last Updated: 2026-09-26

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