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← The "Obliterated" Claim

The DIA Preliminary Assessment: "Delayed, But by Less Than Six Months"

Evidence rating: CONFIRMED that the Pentagon's own intelligence agency produced an early assessment that contradicted "obliterated," and that the White House acknowledged it existed while attacking the leak. The contents are known from CNN, the New York Times, CBS and others, each citing people who had read it.

The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) is the Pentagon's own intelligence service. Its job after a strike is to measure what the bombs actually did, which the military calls a battle damage assessment. Within about a day of the June 22 strikes, the DIA's first assessment reached a conclusion the President did not want to hear.

What it said​

  • Months, not years. "A preliminary classified U.S. report says the American bombing of three nuclear sites in Iran set back the country's nuclear program by only a few months, according to officials familiar with the findings" (New York Times, June 24, 2025).
  • Before and after. Before the attack, if Iran rushed a bomb, US agencies estimated "about three months." After the American and Israeli strikes, "the report by the Defense Intelligence Agency estimated that the program had been delayed, but by less than six months" (same NYT story).
  • Entrances sealed, halls standing. "The strikes sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities but did not collapse their underground buildings."
  • Damage level. The three sites "had suffered moderate to severe damage, with the facility at Natanz damaged the most."
  • The uranium. A syndicated summary said the DIA believed "Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium was moved before the strikes" (inkl, June 25, 2025), and described the document as a "five-page report" that found the strikes "destroyed little of the nuclear material."
  • Sources. CNN reported it citing seven people briefed on it (CNN, June 24, 2025); CBS reported the same (CBS News).

How it was made​

The New York Post reported that the "DIA report was circulated Sunday, just hours after B-2 bombers dropped 'bunker busters' on the Fordow enrichment site," and that it was "compiled without input from other intelligence agencies" (as quoted in a detailed June 30 post). It was rated "low confidence," as later reporting noted (Just Security).

The same post makes a point that matters: the "obliterated" statements of June 22 were also not a finished assessment. The Sunday briefing "was not based on finalized intelligence or a vetted Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) from DIA," but on "a strategic inference." Both the President's claim and the DIA's report were first impressions. Only one of them was allowed to stand in public.

The White House answer​

The White House did not say the DIA was wrong on the facts. It said the report was early and should not have been seen:

  • Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt: "This was a low-confidence preliminary intelligence assessment. The assessment itself said that it was not corroborated by anyone else in the intelligence community" (@DOWResponse, June 25, 2025). She also called it "flat-out wrong" (Fox News).
  • The FBI was reported to be investigating the leak (@Osint613, June 26, 2025).
  • Defense Secretary Hegseth complained of the "fawning coverage" of the leak and said it was meant to "muddy the waters" (as quoted in the June 30 post above).
  • Then the administration restricted what Congress would be told in writing. See CAPNET and Congress.

Why it matters​

The DIA's early reading turned out closer to later US assessments than "obliterated" did. Three weeks later, a new US assessment reported by NBC found only one of the three sites destroyed, and the other two could resume enrichment "in the next several months." See Later US Assessments. When the Pentagon's own analysts said the war had not achieved what the President claimed, the response was to hunt the leaker and cut Congress out.

Status: Karoline Leavitt and Pete Hegseth are alive, as far as these sources show.

Sources​

Last Updated: 2026-09-26

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