← Who Pushed the Iran War
The Public Case for War Versus What U.S. Intelligence Said
If you remember the Iraq war, you remember "weapons of mass destruction" that were never found. The question for this war is the same: was the danger the public was told about the danger America's own intelligence agencies saw? The answer, from the officials' own words, is no. America's spy agencies told Congress that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon, that it had not tried to rebuild after June 2025, and that it would not strike American forces first unless Israel attacked Iran. The "imminent threat" the public heard about came from somewhere else: from briefings the Israeli government and the Mossad fed to the President, sometimes, according to an administration official, without telling him where they came from.
A few terms: the Intelligence Community (IC) is the 18 U.S. spy agencies, led by the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) is the Pentagon's spy agency. The National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) tracks terrorist threats to Americans.
"Iran is not building a nuclear weapon"
On March 25, 2025, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told the Senate: "The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003." Asked about that in June 2025, three months later and days before the strikes, the President said: "I don't care what she said. I think they were very close to having it." (Axios, June 17, 2025). In March 2026, three weeks into the second war, Gabbard's written testimony said that after the June 2025 strikes "there have been no efforts since then to try to rebuild their enrichment capability" (Al Jazeera, March 18, 2026). She left that line out of her spoken remarks.
Read more: Gabbard's assessments
"Obliterated," and the analysts who said otherwise
After June 22, 2025, the President declared Iran's nuclear sites "obliterated." Two days later CNN reported an early DIA assessment that the strikes had set Iran back by months. The White House called the leaker "an anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community." Two months later the DIA's director was removed. The White House page declaring that "suggestions otherwise are fake news" was still online in September 2026, while America fought a second war to destroy the program the first war had supposedly erased.
Read more: The DIA leak and the "obliterated" claim
Where the "imminent threat" came from: Israel
In June 2025 an administration official told The Grayzone that CIA Director John Ratcliffe and CENTCOM commander Gen. Michael Kurilla had "pressured Trump to join Israel's war more directly by regurgitating overblown briefings they received from the Israeli military and Mossad director David Barnea – but without informing the president that the intelligence was derived from a foreign third party." The official called Ratcliffe "Mossad's stenographer." Joe Kent, the President's counterterrorism chief, later said the Israelis could go "point to point" to cabinet members with "some intelligence we haven't put through the regular channel." Before the 2026 war, according to Axios, "Netanyahu gave Trump critical intelligence on February 23." Even Commentary, a magazine that supports the war, conceded that "Israeli intelligence—in both a tactical and strategic sense—did help persuade Trump to launch the second Iran war when he did."
Read more: Israeli intelligence fed to the President
"Unless Israel attacked Iran first"
The President launched the 2026 war to eliminate "imminent threats." The next day, according to CNN, "Pentagon briefers acknowledged to congressional staff in a briefing Sunday that Iran was not planning to strike US forces or bases in the Middle East unless Israel attacked Iran first." Senator Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee: "I saw no intelligence that Iran was on the verge of launching any kind of preemptive strike against the United States of America." Asked "None?" he answered: "None." By the Pentagon's own briefing, the danger to American troops was a danger created by Israel's plan to attack.
Read more: Pentagon told Congress: no first strike
The man who resigned
On March 17, 2026, Joe Kent, a former Green Beret and CIA officer whom the President had appointed to run the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned: "Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby." He was the most senior intelligence official to say it in writing.
Read more: Joe Kent
Side by side
| What the public was told | What intelligence officials said |
|---|---|
| Iran was "very close" to a bomb (June 2025) | "Iran is not building a nuclear weapon" (DNI, March 2025) |
| Sites "obliterated" (June 2025) | Early DIA view: set back months (June 2025) |
| Iran tried to "rebuild their nuclear program" (Feb. 28, 2026) | "No efforts since then to try to rebuild" enrichment (DNI written testimony, March 2026) |
| "Imminent threats" (Feb. 28, 2026) | "Iran posed no imminent threat" (NCTC Director, March 2026) |
| Iran was planning to strike first (Feb. 28, 2026) | Iran would not strike U.S. forces "unless Israel attacked Iran first" (Pentagon briefers, per CNN) |
| Regime change was achievable | CIA Director called Netanyahu's regime-change forecast "farcical" (Feb. 2026) |
Go deeper
How strong is the evidence?
| Claim | Rating | Page |
|---|---|---|
| The DNI told Congress in March 2025 that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon | CONFIRMED | Gabbard |
| The DNI's March 2026 written testimony said Iran made no effort to rebuild enrichment before the war | CONFIRMED | Gabbard |
| Pentagon briefers told congressional staff Iran would not strike first unless Israel attacked | STRONG | No first strike |
| The NCTC director resigned saying Iran posed no imminent threat and Israel's pressure started the war | CONFIRMED | Joe Kent |
| Israeli intelligence helped persuade the President to launch the 2026 war | STRONG | Israeli intelligence |
| Israeli briefings reached the President without their source disclosed (one administration official) | MODERATE | Israeli intelligence |
| Dissenting intelligence was punished or dismissed | STRONG | DIA leak |
Status: Donald Trump, Tulsi Gabbard, Joe Kent, John Ratcliffe, Michael Kurilla, David Barnea, Mark Warner, and Karoline Leavitt are alive. This page compares officials' public words; it does not state that any of them committed a crime.
Sources
- Axios, June 17, 2025.
- Al Jazeera, March 18, 2026.
- CNN, June 24, 2025.
- @SMO_VZ on X, June 21, 2025, pasting The Grayzone.
- Commentary, April 2026.
- Dan Linnaeus on X, April 2, 2026 — CNN briefing report.
- X news summary, March 1, 2026 — Warner.
- Al Jazeera, March 17, 2026 — Kent.
- Times of Israel, April 8, 2026 — "farcical."
Related Areas
Last Updated: 2026-09-26