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← Intelligence vs. Public Case

The DIA Leak and the "Obliterated" Claim

After the June 22, 2025 strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, the President told the country Iran's nuclear facilities had been "completely and totally obliterated." Eight months later he launched a far larger war to destroy the same program. Both claims cannot be true. This page follows what the Pentagon's own analysts said, what happened to them for saying it, and how the story shifted to fit the next war.

June 2025: the early DIA assessment​

On June 24, 2025, CNN reported an early, "low confidence" assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the Pentagon's spy agency, that the strikes had set Iran's program back by months, not destroyed it (CNN, June 24, 2025; ABC News). A later summary described it as finding only "moderate to severe" damage, with Iran's enriched-uranium stockpile "reportedly moved beforehand," while the IAEA's chief, Rafael Grossi, judged the damage "very significant" (captured timeline essay).

How the dissent was handled​

The White House did not answer the analysis with evidence. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt:

"This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong and was classified as 'top secret' but was still leaked to CNN by an anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community."

And: "The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran's nuclear program." (as quoted on Japan Today). She confirmed the assessment was authentic while calling it wrong. On June 25, 2025, the White House published a release titled "Iran's Nuclear Facilities Have Been Obliterated — and Suggestions Otherwise are Fake News" (White House). Secretary Hegseth said the strikes "obliterated Iran's ability to create nuclear weapons."

Then the analysts' leaders were removed. On August 22, 2025, Secretary Hegseth "removed the Defense Intelligence Agency chief and two senior commanders without publicly giving reasons after a DIA assessment challenged Trump's claims about Iran strikes"; the removals are established, the motive not stated (Randy Ferrell on X, September 2, 2026). The message to every analyst in the building was clear.

February 2026: the program returns, for the next war​

On February 28, 2026, the President launched the second war saying Iran "attempted to rebuild their nuclear program and to continue developing the long range missiles" (PBS NewsHour). But the Director of National Intelligence's written testimony three weeks later said that after June 2025 "there have been no efforts since then to try to rebuild their enrichment capability" (see Gabbard's assessments). Rep. Suhas Subramanyam put the contradiction in one sentence: "Last year, we were told that Iran's nuclear capability was obliterated and it would take years to rebuild. Now we're told it poses an existential threat to our country and requires war to destroy it." (compiled statements). Citizens noticed. "Now explain why we still are at war after this statement from a year ago," one wrote in September 2026, linking the White House's "obliterated" release, which was still online (@margculbster on X, September 22, 2026; @RunningBear571, September 23, 2026). Another: "in summer of 25' POTUS said we had wiped out all Iranian ability to obtain nuked. He continued to make this claim despite intelligence sources saying they weren't sure. Then he started a new war in February." (@jeramye on X, September 24, 2026).

2026: the same pattern​

The pattern repeated in the second war. CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper testified that 90 percent of Iran's defense industrial base was destroyed and would take years to rebuild; updated intelligence then showed "Roughly two thirds of Iran's missile launchers survived the war intact and have been moved out of sealed tunnels," and Iran resuming limited production in underground facilities (X news summary, May 25, 2026). In July 2026 the Washington Post reported that U.S. intelligence found new rounds of strikes "unlikely to have a significant impact on Iran or soften its negotiating position" (X news summary, July 21, 2026). The DIA's director told the House in April 2026 that Iran "retains thousands of missiles and one-way attack UAV's" (Fox News via Owen Gregorian).

What it shows​

Each time the intelligence did not fit the story, the story won and the analysts lost. The "obliterated" claim justified the first war's quick end; the "rebuilt" claim justified the second war's start; neither matched the agencies' own findings. For a family deciding whether to believe the next claim, the record is the guide.

Status: Donald Trump, Karoline Leavitt, Pete Hegseth, Rafael Grossi, Brad Cooper, Suhas Subramanyam, and Tulsi Gabbard are alive.

Sources​

Last Updated: 2026-09-26

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