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The Situation Room Pitch: How the February 2026 War Was Sold

The June 2025 strikes were supposed to have "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program. Eight months later, on February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a far larger war on Iran. The American side was called Operation Epic Fury; Israel's was Roaring Lion. On the first day, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed. Within weeks the Strait of Hormuz was closed, American bases across the Gulf were under fire, and oil passed $100 a barrel.

How did a President who had just declared victory decide to start a second, bigger war? The most detailed reconstruction, by New York Times reporters Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman, was carried in Israel's own English-language papers. At its center is an hour-long presentation by Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, inside the White House Situation Room, the secure room where Presidents make war decisions.

December 2025 to January 2026: the ask resumes​

  • Late December 2025, Mar-a-Lago. The Stimson Center, a nonpartisan Washington research institute, notes "a December meeting at Mar-a-Lago" between Trump and Netanyahu in the run-up (Stimson Center, August 3, 2026). Writer Akbar Ganji, citing NBC, the Times of Israel, Axios, Al Jazeera and Responsible Statecraft, wrote that outlets treated the aim of the December 28 to 29 visit as approval for another strike (Ganji on X, December 27, 2025). A pro-Israel commentator later confirmed the point: "Netanyahu flew to Washington in December 2025 to discuss it with Trump personally" (@nnahle on X, June 15, 2026).
  • January 2026: former Israeli negotiator Daniel Levy told Declassified UK that Israel had been lobbying the Trump administration "for another round of strikes on Iran ever since the June 2025 assault," and that "a collapse of the Iranian state, not just the fall of the government, is a key part of Israel's project for the region" (Declassified UK via Threads, February 28, 2026).
  • January 5, 2026: an account with 1.2 million views reported Trump had "reportedly given the green light to Israel to strike Iran" (@warsurv on X; unsourced in the post).
  • Mid-January: timing still mattered to Israel. A U.S. official said Netanyahu asked Trump "to delay a strike on Iran" (All Israel News on X, January 15, 2026). Former Israeli defense minister Avigdor Lieberman said on video that Netanyahu asked for the delay "because we are not ready in the field of defense" (Sprinter Press on X, January 20, 2026). The question was when, not whether.
  • January 25: "Israel says the US may opt to strike Iran directly" (the Jerusalem Post, as relayed by @World_Affairs11 on X).

February 9 to 11: red lines and the pitch​

On February 9, senior Israeli security sources told the Jerusalem Post they had "shared detailed strike plans with U.S. counterparts to degrade Iran's ballistic missile program," and warned: "We told the Americans that if Iran crosses the red line we have set regarding ballistic missiles, we will attack Iran ourselves." The incoming Israeli Air Force commander, Brig. Gen. Omer Tishler, was set to travel with Netanyahu to Washington (X news summary of the Jerusalem Post, February 9, 2026; related summary).

On February 11, Netanyahu came to the White House. Israeli papers carried the Times reconstruction:

  • The Times of Israel, April 8, 2026: Netanyahu gave an hour-long Situation Room presentation arguing that Iran's missile program could be destroyed in weeks, that Tehran would be too weak to close the Strait of Hormuz, and that the regime was ripe for collapse. The next day CIA Director John Ratcliffe called the regime-change forecast "farcical," and Secretary of State Marco Rubio replied, "In other words, it's bullshit" (Times of Israel).
  • The Jerusalem Post, April 9, 2026: the Times called it a "hard sell"; Netanyahu floated possible successors, including exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi; Trump answered, "Sounds good to me" (Jerusalem Post).
  • Hudson Institute's Michael Doran, who backs the war, confirmed the picture: the Times piece described Netanyahu arriving "with a confident pitch for regime change, complete with a video montage of potential post-theocratic leaders, and Trump responds positively" (Hudson Institute, April 13, 2026).
  • The Stimson Center: Netanyahu "directly presented the case for war to Trump and a small group of Cabinet officials on February 11, 2026," "a hard sell, suggesting that Iran was ripe for regime change" (Stimson, August 3, 2026).

A timeline circulating on X described the motive plainly: "an alarmed Netanyahu, fearing the talks might actually succeed," made the presentation (X search page capture, June 2026; author not identified). Talks were real: Iran and the U.S. were exchanging "written notes" through Oman, and after the meeting there was no joint statement (Talal Nahle, IntelSky, February 11, 2026).

John Kerry, citing the same reporting, said Netanyahu's "four-point pitch" was that "they could kill the leadership, they could incite a change of regime etcetera, they would destroy the military," and that "there was no imminent threat" (Jerusalem Post, April 12, 2026).

February 23 to 27: the last push​

  • "Let Israel go first." Politico reported on February 25: "Senior advisers to President Donald Trump would prefer Israel strike Iran before the United States launches an assault on the country... These Trump administration officials are privately arguing that an Israeli attack would trigger Iran to retaliate, helping muster support from American voters for a U.S. strike" (as quoted on Reddit r/NewIran; Politico). This is the 2009 Brookings "Leave it to Bibi" playbook in action (see Which Path to Persia).
  • "Imminent." On February 24, Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth, citing an Israeli official: "An American attack on Iran is imminent" (@intelFromBrian on X).
  • Israeli intelligence at the decisive moment. Axios reported that "Netanyahu gave Trump critical intelligence on February 23, the CIA spent the following days verifying it, and Trump gave the final strike order on the afternoon of February 27" (as cited by Matthew J. Reynolds on X, September 21, 2026). The pro-war magazine Commentary conceded: "Israeli intelligence—in both a tactical and strategic sense—did help persuade Trump to launch the second Iran war when he did" (Commentary, April 2026).
  • Diplomacy was working. According to a widely shared account of the war, on the evening of February 27, "even as Oman's foreign minister announced a 'breakthrough' - Iran reportedly agreeing never to stockpile enriched uranium, to accept full IAEA verification, and to irreversibly downgrade its 60% stock - Trump, aboard Air Force One, gave the order to proceed with Operation Epic Fury" (X search capture of the essay "Why gas prices will stay high in 2026," which calls itself "interpretation"). Biden's former national security adviser Jake Sullivan said: "Days before we started bombing Iran, they put a proposal on the table in Geneva" (RT on X, March 25, 2026).
  • Israel and Saudi Arabia lobbied together. Washington Post reporters Michael Birnbaum, John Hudson, Karen DeYoung and colleagues reported on March 1: "U.S. intelligence assessments saw no imminent threat, but regional allies argued now was the time to strike." Trump attacked "after a weeks-long lobbying effort by an unusual pair of U.S. allies in the Middle East — Israel and Saudi Arabia — according to four people familiar with the matter," while "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, continued his long-running public campaign for U.S. strikes" (captured from an X search page; see Saudi Arabia and the Gulf).

On February 28, Trump approved the operation: "No aborts. Good luck" (Times of Israel).

Different goals from the start​

The two allies went to war wanting different things, and Israel's goal won. Al Majalla: "Washington wants to strip Iran of its ability to develop a nuclear weapon arsenal, whereas Tel Aviv appears intent on regime change" (Al Majalla, September 2026). Foreign Affairs: Israel "has focused on leadership elimination and regime change as the campaign's primary objectives," while the U.S. hoped force would "coerce the regime's leadership into making a deal"; "These two theories of the case are not complementary" (Foreign Affairs, April 8, 2026).

The Stimson Center's conclusion: "U.S. core security interests alone" did not motivate the war; "allies, specifically Israel and Saudi Arabia, are a but-for cause." It quoted Oman's foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, who had been mediating: "this is not America's war" (Stimson, August 3, 2026).

Six weeks into the war, the Times of Israel summary notes, Iran was still firing ballistic missiles daily and had closed Hormuz at once. The pitch was wrong in every particular the CIA Director flagged.

ClaimRating
Netanyahu pitched the war in the Situation Room on February 11, 2026STRONG
The CIA Director called his regime-change forecast "farcical"STRONG
Israeli intelligence helped persuade Trump to launch the war when he didSTRONG (conceded by pro-war Commentary)
Israel and Saudi Arabia lobbied for weeks for a U.S. attack while U.S. intelligence saw no imminent threatMODERATE (four anonymous sources)
Allies were a "but-for cause" of the war (Stimson)STRONG

Status: Benjamin Netanyahu, Donald Trump, John Ratcliffe, Marco Rubio, Reza Pahlavi, Michael Doran, John Kerry, Daniel Levy, Avigdor Lieberman, Omer Tishler, Jake Sullivan, Badr Albusaidi, Jonathan Swan, and Maggie Haberman are alive. Ali Khamenei is deceased (2026), according to the reporting cited above.

Sources​

Last Updated: 2026-09-26

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