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Brookings 2009: "Which Path to Persia?" and "Leave it to Bibi"

In 2009 the Brookings Institution, one of Washington's oldest and most establishment think tanks, published a book-length study titled Which Path to Persia? Options for a New American Strategy toward Iran. Its authors included Kenneth Pollack; one journalist describes the authors as "CIA veterans." The paper laid out many options, from diplomacy to invasion. Two passages have been quoted again and again since the bombing began, because they read like a script for what happened in 2025 and 2026.

"Leave it to Bibi"​

"Bibi" is Benjamin Netanyahu's nickname. Chapter 5 of the paper, titled "Leave it to Bibi," considered letting Israel strike Iran first. The passage most often quoted:

"the United States would encourage—and perhaps even assist—the Israelis in conducting the strikes themselves, in the expectation that both international criticism and Iranian retaliation would be deflected away from the United States and onto Israel."

(Greg C. on X, September 26, 2026; also quoted by George Christensen on X, June 14, 2025, the day after Israel's first strikes). Journalist Ben Norton described the authors as "CIA veterans" who recommended, at "the warmongering think tank Brookings," that the US "encourage - and perhaps even assist - the Israelis in conducting the strikes" (Norton on X, October 4, 2024).

The provocation passage​

The second passage concerns regime change. As quoted in an X news summary when the paper "drew fresh eyes" during Iran's January 2026 protests, the paper says efforts to promote regime change might be "intended by the U.S. government as deliberate provocations to try to goad the Iranians into an excessive response that might then justify an American invasion." The same summary says the paper details "economic pressure to cause 'real pain' and diplomacy that might provoke overreactions justifying force" (X news summary, January 14, 2026). Analyst Brian Berletic called it "a blueprint for war with Iran": "The paper includes chapters detailing US sanctions, false nuclear deals, US-sponsored terrorism and regime change operations, and the use of Israel as a proxy to start a war the US seeks to appear 'reluctant' to wade into afterwards. It is a signed/dated policy paper that has clearly been and still is being implemented since its publication" (Berletic on X, September 21, 2024).

How 2025 and 2026 matched the script​

  • Israel strikes first. On June 13, 2025, Israel attacked Iran alone; Secretary of State Rubio said "Israel took unilateral action." Nine days later America followed. Israeli officials told Axios they had "a clear US green light" all along (see how America joined).
  • Retaliation directed at Israel, then used to justify America. On March 2, 2026, Secretary Rubio said: "we knew that there was going to be an Israeli action, we knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces" (White House clip).
  • The politics of going second. On February 25, 2026, Politico reported that senior advisers to the President "would prefer Israel strike Iran before the United States launches an assault," arguing "an Israeli attack would trigger Iran to retaliate, helping muster support from American voters for a U.S. strike" (Reddit quoting Politico; Politico). As one X headline put it: White House officials believe "the politics are a lot better" if Israel strikes first (X news summary, February 24, 2026).
  • Protests as provocation. The paper resurfaced in January 2026 because Iran's street protests and the American threats around them looked like its regime-change chapter in action.

The CFR contingency memo​

A second 2009 document is cited in the same thread. George Christensen described a Council on Foreign Relations "contingency memo" titled An Israeli Strike on Iran, with "the exact blueprint": targets "Natanz, Arak, Esfahan," weapons "BLU-113 bunker busters," and flight paths "Over Jordan & Iraq" (Christensen on X, June 14, 2025). Natanz and Isfahan were among the three sites America struck on June 22, 2025.

What this shows​

Neither paper was a government order. What they show is that the idea of using Israel's strike to pull America into war with Iran, while making America look reluctant, was discussed openly in Washington's leading institutes more than fifteen years before it happened. When citizens are told the war was a sudden response to an imminent threat, these documents are the reply: the path was mapped in advance.

Status: Kenneth Pollack, Ben Norton, Brian Berletic, and George Christensen are alive.

Sources​

Last Updated: 2026-09-26

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