Skip to main content

< Back to Main List | Groups Index

Project for the New American Century (PNAC)

Neoconservative think tank whose September 2000 document "Rebuilding America's Defenses" called for a "new Pearl Harbor" to catalyze US military transformation -- one year before 9/11 provided exactly that.

FieldDetails
TypeThink Tank / Policy Organization
Founded1997
Dissolved2009
Location(s)Washington, DC
Active Period1997-2009
StatusDisbanded (succeeded by Foreign Policy Initiative)
FoundersWilliam Kristol, Robert Kagan
Key ClaimPNAC articulated the precise geopolitical agenda that 9/11 enabled, and its members occupied the key positions of power needed to execute that agenda
Evidence RatingWELL-DOCUMENTED

Overview​

The Project for the New American Century was established on June 3, 1997, as a neoconservative think tank dedicated to promoting "American global leadership." Co-founded by William Kristol (editor of The Weekly Standard) and Robert Kagan (foreign policy commentator), PNAC advocated for dramatically increased defense spending, regime change in Iraq, and an aggressive posture of American military dominance worldwide.

What makes PNAC central to 9/11 research is a convergence of three documented facts: (1) the organization published a document in September 2000 explicitly stating that its agenda would require "some catastrophic and catalyzing event -- like a new Pearl Harbor"; (2) at least 14 of its 25 original signatories were placed in senior positions in the Bush administration; and (3) the wars and policies that followed 9/11 matched PNAC's published agenda with remarkable precision.

PNAC's significance is not speculative. Its documents are publicly available. Its members' roles in the Bush administration are a matter of public record. The wars it called for were launched. The question is whether this represents policy opportunism or something more.

Key Activities & Evidence​

The Statement of Principles (June 3, 1997)​

PNAC's founding document called for the United States to "shape a new century favorable to American principles and interests" and to "increase defense spending significantly" while "challeng[ing] regimes hostile to our interests and values." Twenty-five signatories endorsed it, including future Vice President Dick Cheney, future Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, future Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, Jeb Bush, and future Vice Presidential Chief of Staff I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby.

The 1998 Letters to President Clinton​

On January 26, 1998, PNAC sent an open letter to President Bill Clinton urging the removal of Saddam Hussein from power, stating that "we can no longer depend on our partners in the Gulf War coalition" and advocating unilateral US military action against Iraq. Signatories included Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Perle, Bolton, Abrams, Khalilzad, and Armitage.

When Clinton did not act on their recommendation, PNAC sent follow-up letters to Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott on May 29, 1998, repeating their proposals. These lobbying efforts contributed to the passage of the Iraq Liberation Act of November 1998, which officially shifted US policy on Iraq from containment to regime change -- three years before 9/11.

"Rebuilding America's Defenses" (September 2000)​

PNAC's most consequential publication was a 90-page report titled Rebuilding America's Defenses: Strategy, Forces, and Resources for a New Century, published in September 2000. The document laid out a comprehensive blueprint for American military transformation, including:

  • Maintaining US preeminence and preventing the rise of a rival power
  • Fighting and winning multiple simultaneous large-scale wars
  • Performing "constabulary" duties associated with shaping the security environment in key regions
  • Transforming US forces to exploit the "revolution in military affairs"
  • Controlling the "new international commons" of space and cyberspace

The document's most quoted passage, from Section V titled "Creating Tomorrow's Dominant Force," reads:

"Further, the process of transformation, even if it brings revolutionary change, is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event -- like a new Pearl Harbor."

This statement, written one year before 9/11, has been cited by journalists including John Pilger, academics, and researchers as evidence that PNAC members understood that their agenda required a massive shock event to gain public and political support.

9/11: The "New Pearl Harbor" Arrives​

On September 11, 2001, the United States experienced what President Bush himself called "the Pearl Harbor of the 21st century." The attacks killed nearly 3,000 people and created exactly the political environment PNAC had described as necessary for its agenda.

Within hours of the attacks, PNAC member Donald Rumsfeld was asking aides to find evidence linking Iraq to 9/11. According to notes taken by aide Stephen Cambone, Rumsfeld wanted "best info fast. Judge whether good enough hit S.H. [Saddam Hussein] at same time. Not only UBL [Osama bin Laden]."

The Wars That Matched PNAC's Agenda​

The post-9/11 wars aligned with PNAC's published recommendations:

  • Afghanistan (October 2001) -- Invasion launched within weeks of 9/11
  • Iraq (March 2003) -- Invasion launched based on claims of WMDs and ties to al-Qaeda, both later proven false; PNAC had called for Iraq regime change since 1998
  • Defense spending -- US defense budget increased from $287 billion (2001) to over $700 billion, as PNAC had advocated
  • Global military posture -- Expansion of US military bases and operations worldwide
  • Patriot Act and surveillance state -- Expansion of domestic surveillance powers

Key Figures​

PNAC Members Who Became Bush Administration Officials​

  • Dick Cheney -- Vice President of the United States (PNAC signatory)
  • Donald Rumsfeld -- Secretary of Defense (PNAC signatory)
  • Paul Wolfowitz -- Deputy Secretary of Defense (PNAC signatory)
  • I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby -- Chief of Staff to the Vice President (PNAC signatory)
  • Zalmay Khalilzad -- Senior Director, National Security Council; later Ambassador to Afghanistan and Iraq (PNAC signatory)
  • Elliott Abrams -- Senior Director for Near East, National Security Council (PNAC signatory)
  • John Bolton -- Under Secretary of State for Arms Control (PNAC signatory)
  • Richard Perle -- Chairman, Defense Policy Board Advisory Committee (PNAC signatory)
  • Peter Rodman -- Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs
  • Jeb Bush -- Governor of Florida (PNAC signatory, brother of President Bush)
  • Philip Zelikow -- Executive Director of the 9/11 Commission; co-authored a book with Condoleezza Rice and served on the Bush transition team

Other Notable PNAC Associates​

  • William Kristol -- PNAC co-founder, editor of The Weekly Standard
  • Robert Kagan -- PNAC co-founder, foreign policy commentator
  • R. James Woolsey -- Former CIA Director (PNAC signatory)
  • Francis Fukuyama -- Political scientist (later distanced himself from PNAC)
  • Gary Schmitt -- PNAC Executive Director

Why This Group Matters​

PNAC represents the most thoroughly documented case of a policy agenda that required -- and received -- a "catalyzing event" to be implemented. The significance lies in several converging patterns:

  • Stated need for a Pearl Harbor event -- Written in their own published document, one year before 9/11 provided it
  • Personnel placement -- At least 14 PNAC signatories were placed in key Bush administration positions with authority over defense, intelligence, and foreign policy
  • Pre-existing Iraq agenda -- PNAC called for Iraq regime change in 1998, three years before 9/11 was used as justification
  • War profiteering -- Connected to defense contractors who benefited enormously from the wars PNAC advocated
  • Investigation control -- PNAC-affiliated individuals had influence over the post-9/11 investigation (see 9/11 Commission)

Whether PNAC members had foreknowledge of 9/11, actively facilitated it (MIHOP), allowed it to happen (LIHOP), or simply exploited it opportunistically remains debated. What is not debated is that the attacks gave them exactly what they said they needed, and they moved immediately to implement their pre-existing agenda.

Criticisms & Counter-Arguments​

  • Policy advocacy is not complicity. Many think tanks publish strategic assessments that reference historical analogies. The "new Pearl Harbor" phrase can be read as an observation about political reality rather than a wish for catastrophe.
  • Historical precedent. The Pearl Harbor analogy was common in defense policy circles before PNAC used it. The phrase describes a general principle about how democracies mobilize, not a specific prediction.
  • Post-hoc reasoning. Critics argue that connecting PNAC's documents to 9/11 is a case of seeing patterns after the fact, noting that many policy documents describe scenarios that never materialize.
  • PNAC members' roles were normal. Republican administrations draw from Republican policy circles; the overlap between PNAC and the Bush administration reflects ordinary political staffing.
  • No evidence of operational involvement. No declassified document or credible whistleblower has directly linked PNAC members to operational planning of the 9/11 attacks.
  • Philip Zelikow -- PNAC-connected figure who controlled the 9/11 Commission investigation as executive director
  • Bob Graham -- Senator who chaired the Joint Inquiry and fought to declassify the 28 pages revealing Saudi government connections
  • 9/11 Commission -- The official investigation whose scope and conclusions were shaped by individuals with PNAC connections
  • Pakistan ISI -- Intelligence service whose chief was meeting with US intelligence committee leaders on the morning of 9/11

Other Coverage Worth Reading​

  • Philip Zelikow: The man who controlled the 9/11 investigation had pre-existing ties to the Bush administration and co-authored a book with Condoleezza Rice.
  • Bob Graham: A US Senator spent years fighting to declassify 28 pages proving Saudi government officials helped the hijackers.
  • 9/11 Commission: The official 9/11 investigation received less funding than the Clinton-Lewinsky probe and its own members called it compromised.
  • Pakistan ISI: Pakistan's spy chief wired $100,000 to lead hijacker Mohamed Atta and was having breakfast with US lawmakers when the planes hit.

Sources​

This information was compiled by Claude AI research.